WTPS31 PGTW 101500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TWENTY) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TWENTY) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z --- NEAR 28.4S 176.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 28.4S 176.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 31.8S 175.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 101500Z POSITION NEAR 29.2S 176.4W. 10FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 671 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS MODERATE CONVECTION FLARING TO THE SOUTH OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT (101007Z) ASCAT-C SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN ELONGATED LLCC, WITH PATCHES OF 40 KNOT WINDS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO BOTH THE INITIAL POSITION AND INITIAL INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN A STR TO THE EAST AND A STRONG MID-LATITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST. TC 20P IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY EXTRATROPICAL AS IT MOVES OVER COOL (<24C) WATERS AND MOVES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AND EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. ANALYSIS OF THE 1000-500MB THICKNESS DATA INDICATES WEAK, BUT INCREASING THERMAL ADVECTION, LENDING FURTHER SUPPORT TO THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SCENARIO. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN TWELVE HOURS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 17 FEET.// NNNN