WTXS32 PGTW 100900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z --- NEAR 15.4S 85.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 85.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 15.9S 85.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 16.3S 84.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 16.6S 84.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 17.1S 83.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 17.5S 81.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 17.5S 79.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 16.8S 76.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 100900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 85.0E. 10FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 888 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN IMPROVED STRUCUTRE WITH A WEAK, BUT WELL DEFINED, EYE FEATURE IN THE VISIBLE AND WARM SPOT IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY. HOWEVER, SUBSEQUENT IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS FEATURE HAS FILLED IN AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS OBSCURED BY THE DEEP CORE CONVECTION, AND THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED WITH ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE VERY WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A 100330Z AMSU-B 89GHZ IMAGE. THE INTIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 95KT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KTS) FROM PGTW, T5.5 (102 KTS) FROM FMEE AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T4.9. TC FARAJI IS CURRENTLY MOVING VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST, THROUGH AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KT) VWS AND WARM (28-29C) SSTS, BEING SOMEWHAT CONSTRAINED BY THE LACK OF DISTINCT OUTFLOW CHANNEL. OVER THE NEXT 12-48 HOURS, THE STR TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD WHILE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD, LEADING TC 19S TO SLOWLY TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS WELL. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY STEADY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH ONLY SMALL INCREASES IN VWS, RESULTING IN A VERY SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 48. IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS, SHORT-TERM EXCUSIONS BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW THE MEAN INTENSITY TREND CAN BE EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO SHORT DURATION CHANGES IN THE LOCALIZED ENVIRONMENT AND DIURNAL EFFECTS. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL INTENSITY TREND WILL BE WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY TAU 72, THE STR BUILDS AND MOVES TO A POSITION TO THE SOUTH OF TC 19S, LEADING TO A GENERALLY WEST TO SLIGHTLY WEST- NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH TAU 120. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE AFTER TAU 72, WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT COMBINING TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AT MUCH HIGHER RATE BETWEEN TAUS 72-120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO BUT DEPICTS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TURN TOWARDS THE WEST, WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING A VERY TIGHT TURN AND THE NAVGEM FORECASTING A MUCH SHALLOWER TURN. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS FOR A RELATIVELY TIGHT ENVELOPE WHICH SLIGHTLY FAVORS THE SHARPER TURN SCENARIO, BUT WITH A SPREAD OF 440NM BETWEEN OUTLIERS AT TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED JUST WEST AND NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEAN WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY DEPICTED IN THE GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z.// NNNN