WTXS32 PGTW 092100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 14.6S 84.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 84.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 15.2S 85.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 15.7S 85.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 16.1S 85.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 16.4S 84.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 16.9S 83.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 17.1S 81.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 16.9S 78.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 092100Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 84.9E. 09FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 848 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE PREVIOUS EYE HAS FILLED WITH CLOUDS AND FULLY COLLAPSED. HOWEVER, AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A 091622Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE LENDS GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5-6.0 (102-115 KTS, PGTW/FMEE), AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 105 KTS, AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS OF 109 KTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE 34- AND 50-KNOT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON A 091623Z BULLSEYE ASCAT IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS TC 19S IS TRACKING THROUGH AN OVERALL MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY LIMITED EASTWARD OUTFLOW. TC 19S HAS BEGUN TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST BEGINS TO TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM AND THUS LIMIT FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESS. THIS STR IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE SYSTEM TO A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 24. AFTERWARDS, TC 19S SHOULD TURN TO A WESTWARD TRACK AS A STR TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO BUILD. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 19S IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND GENERALLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. SHORT DURATION BURSTS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON A DIURNAL CYCLE, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTENSITY. NEVERTHELESS, THE OVERALL INTENSITY TREND WILL BE WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO. HOWEVER, DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST LEND SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST. THESE VARIATIONS ARE LARGELY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE RATE OF THE SYSTEM WEAKENING AND THE LEVEL OF STEERING FLOW. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 36 AND THEN NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST TO OFFSET NAVGEM (A SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER TO THE SOUTH). OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z AND 102100Z.// NNNN