WTXS32 PGTW 090900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z --- NEAR 14.0S 83.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 83.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 14.0S 84.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 14.6S 85.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 15.4S 85.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 15.8S 85.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 16.4S 83.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 16.6S 81.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 16.6S 79.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 090900Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 83.8E. 09FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 769 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE VERY SMALL BUT WELL DEFINED EYE FEATURE THAT WAS EVIDENT AT 0600Z HAS SUBSEQUENTLY COLLAPSED, BUT THE MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A SMALL, SOMEWHAT ELONGATED AND MOSTLY CLOUD FILLED EYE LIKE FEATURE THROUGH THE 0700Z HOUR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED 10NM EYE THAT WAS EVIDENT AT 0600Z. A 090350Z AMSU- B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A VERY COMPACT CONVECTIVE CORE, WITH THE EYEWALL STARTING TO DETERIORATE SLIGHTLY ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 130 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T7.0 IN LIGHT OF A DATA T-NUMBER OF T6.0 (115 KTS), WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM A FMEE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.5 (127 KTS), AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T6.6 AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 131 KTS. FINALLY, A 090000Z RADARSAT-2 SAR BULLSEYE INDICATED WINDS OF 131 KTS, WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR 150 KTS, LENDING ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY. TC FARAJI IS CURRENTLY TRACKING GENERALLY EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTH THROUGH A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) SOUTHWESTERLY VWS, WARM (27-28C) SSTS AND WEAK EASTWARD OUTFLOW. TC FARAJI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER THROUGH TAU 24. BY TAU 24, A STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL (STR) IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE EAST, WHICH WILL BLOCK ANY FURTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT. AS THIS NEW RIDGE TAKES OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW, AND TURN SHARPLY SOUTHWARD BY TAU 36, AND BY TAU 72, IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A WESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASED VWS, DECREASING SSTS AND GENERALLY MARGINAL OUTFLOW CONDITIONS. SHORT DURATION BURSTS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON A DIURNAL CYCLE, WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTENSITY, BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE DOWNWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO, BUT WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST, PRIMARILY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE RATE OF WEAKENING AND THUS THE LEVEL OF THE STEERING FLOW. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES ON THE SOUTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL ENVELOPE THOUGH TAU 36, THEN NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE INFLUENCE OF THE NAVGEM TRACKER, WHICH IS AN UNLIKELY OUTLIER TO THE SOUTH. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z.// NNNN