WTXS32 PGTW 090900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 081800Z --- NEAR 14.2S 82.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 82.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 14.3S 83.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 14.6S 84.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 15.2S 85.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 15.6S 86.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 16.5S 85.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 17.1S 83.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 17.4S 81.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 082100Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 82.8E. 08FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 727 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DENSE, COMPACT SYSTEM WITH WELL-DEFINED 20 NM DIAMETER EYE AND CHARACTERISTICS OF AN ANNULAR TROPICAL CYCLONE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATION OF A 081529Z ASCAT-A IMAGE WITH A COMPACT, SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 140 KTS IS SET WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T7.0 (140 KTS, PGTW/FMEE), AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T7.2 (146 KTS), AND 081257Z SAR DATA REVEALING 135-141KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. ALL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON MEASUREMENTS FROM THE RECENT ASCAT AND SAR DATA. TC FARAJI IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH THROUGH A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OFFSET BY LIMITED EASTWARD OUTFLOW. DIFFERING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, TC 19S SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, AFTER SYNOPTIC TIME, THE EYE BEGAN TO BECOME SLIGHTLY DEFORMED, INDICATING A POTENTIAL DECLINE WITHIN THE SYSTEM. INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TC 19S WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM TURNS SOUTHEASTWARD. AT THIS TIME, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE AND DRIVE TC 19S SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 48, SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 96, AND THEN WESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. AFTER TAU 36, INCREASING VWS AND POSSIBLE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST TO 45 KTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 WITH A SPREAD OF 60 NM. AFTERWARDS, UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST PLACES ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRACK AS MODEL SPREAD INCREASES. OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS PLACED JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE TRACK BIAS INDUCED BY THE NAVGEM OUTLIER IN THE LATER TAUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z.// NNNN