ABPW10 PGTW 090600 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/090600Z-100600ZFEB2021// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081451ZFEB2021// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.9S 178.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.4S 179.5W, APPROXIMATELY 198 NM SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING, DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 080958Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED ALONG THE NORTH- SOUTH AXIS AND CONTAINS 30-35 KTS WINDS IN THE CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY, ALTHOUGH THE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE ELONGATED CIRCULATION REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK (10-15 KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONVERGING ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH SUBSEQUENT CONSOLIDATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 081500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN