ABPW10 PGTW 081200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR/HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND/SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/081200Z-090600ZFEB2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.       
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 15.1S 179.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9S 179.8E, APPROXIMATELY 
145 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING, DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING
A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 080958Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS
THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED ALONG THE NORTH-SOUTH
AXIS AND CONTAINS 30-35 KTS WINDS IN THE CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY, ALTHOUGH THE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE ELONGATED
CIRCULATION REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK (10-15 KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL 
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET 
SLIGHTLY BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONVERGING
ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH SUBSEQUENT CONSOLIDATION INTO A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.
//
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