WTXS32 PGTW 080900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 080600Z --- NEAR 14.2S 81.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 81.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 14.1S 82.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 14.3S 83.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 14.6S 85.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 15.1S 85.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 16.0S 85.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 16.8S 84.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 17.3S 82.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 080900Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 81.8E. 08FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (TC) (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DENSE, AXISYMMETRIC CONVECTION CHARACTERISTIC OF AN ANNULAR TROPICAL CYCLONE ALONG WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING A WELL DEFINED 20 NM DIAMETER EYE. THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI IMAGERY, COMBINED WITH SCATTERMETRY DATA FROM A 080412Z ASCAT-B PASS, LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 120 KTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KTS, PGTW) AND T6.0 (115 KTS, FMEE AND FIMP) AND IS HEDGED ABOVE A 080410Z CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 116 KTS. TC FARAJI IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) THAT IS OFFSET BY REDUCED OUTFLOW ALOFT. THIS LOSS OF PREVIOUSLY ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, COUPLED WITH THE UPWELLING OF COOLER WATER DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY QUASI- STATIONARY (QS) TRACK MOTION, WILL PREVENT TC FARAJI FROM FURTHER INTENSIFYING, HOWEVER THE ANNULAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY MODERATE WEAKENING IN THE NEAR TERM TO 100 KTS BY TAU 48. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NER UNTIL TAU 48 AT WHICH POINT A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. AS THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IT WILL BEGIN TO DRIVE TC FARAJI INITIALLY SOUTHWARD FROM TAU 48 TO TAU 72, SOUTHWESTWARD FROM TAU 72 TO TAU 96 AND THEN WESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. STEADY WEAKENING WILL OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD AS A RESULT OF CONTINUAL MODERATE VWS AFTER TAU 48, COUPLED WITH CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY ENTRAINMENT OF COOL DRY AIR FROM THE EAST. BY TAU 120, THESE CONDITIONS WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 45 KTS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL SPREAD IN ACROSS TRACK SOLUTIONS, HOWEVER THERE IS A FAIR DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE IN TRACK DIRECTION FROM EASTWARD TO SOUTHWARD. OVERALL, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET A SLIGHT RIGHT OF TRACK BIAS FROM NAVGEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z AND 090900Z. // NNNN