WTXS32 PGTW 072100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 071800Z --- NEAR 14.6S 80.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 80.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 14.4S 81.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 14.4S 82.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 14.6S 83.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 15.1S 84.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 16.2S 86.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 17.1S 85.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 17.7S 83.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 072100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 80.4E. 07FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 639 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED 20- NM EYE AND COMPACT, SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST, EVEN AS CONVECTIVE TOPS WARM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE, ADJUSTED FOR A SLIGHT FORWARD TILT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115KTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T6.0/115KTS FROM PGTW AND FMEE. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SST, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 19S IS SLOWLY COMING OUT OF A QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) STATE AS THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH STEERS IT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. AROUND TAU 72, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST WILL BUILD, ASSUME STEERING AND GRADUALLY DRIVE THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD THEN WESTWARD. AS TC 19S PROGRESSES EASTWARD, THE REDUCED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT CAUSED BY UPWELLING DUE TO ITS PROLONGED QS STATE, PLUS THE INFLUX OF COLD DRY AIR, WILL OFFSET THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, RESULTING IN A NET WEAKENING AND, BY TAU 72, WILL BE DOWN TO 90KTS. AFTERWARD, AS THE CYCLONE MAKES A WIDE U-TURN WESTWARD, INCREASING VWS (20KT+), PLUS THE SUBSIDING IMPACT OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, WILL RAPIDLY ERODE TC FARAJI DOWN TO 45KTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM THAT IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. HOWEVER, THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM MOTIONS IN THE POST-QS PHASE AND DURING THE STEERING TRANSITION AROUND TAU 72, RESULT IN AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET NAVGEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z.// NNNN