WTXS32 PGTW 070900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 070600Z --- NEAR 14.9S 79.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 79.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 14.9S 80.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 14.7S 81.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 14.6S 82.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 14.7S 83.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 15.6S 85.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 16.3S 85.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 17.3S 84.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 070900Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 80.0E. 07FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 639 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A 24 NM DIAMETER EYE. THE PRESENCE OF THE EYE FEATURE LENDS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION, WHICH HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY (QS) OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KTS, FMEE), T6.0 (115 KTS, PGTW) AND T5.5 (102 KTS, FIMP). TC 19S IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5- 10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) AND ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. DESPITE THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, TC FARAJI WILL STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT 115 KTS INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND A LIKELY LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AS A RESULT OF THE QS STORM MOTION. AFTER TAU 24, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT GRADUAL RE-INTENSIFICATION TO 120 KTS BY TAU 48. THEREAFTER, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND BY TAU 72 WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. INITIALLY, THE STEERING STR WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM POLEWARD AFTER TAU 72 AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 96. MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VWS AFTER TAU 72, COUPLED WITH COOLING SST AND CONVERGENT UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS TO THE SOUTH WILL LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING TO 70 KTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE INITIAL EASTWARD TRACK HOWEVER THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE BUILDING STR RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE POLEWARD RE-CURVATURE AFTER TAU 72. THIS UNCERTAINTY LENDS ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET A SIGNIFICANT POLEWARD TRACK BIAS FROM THE NAVGEM SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z AND 080900Z. // NNNN