WTXS32 PGTW 062100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 061800Z --- NEAR 14.7S 79.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 79.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 15.0S 79.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 15.1S 80.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 15.0S 80.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 14.9S 81.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 15.2S 83.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 16.1S 84.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 17.3S 84.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 062100Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 79.7E. 06FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 619 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A PINHOLE EYE AS IT BECAME MORE COMPACT AND SYMMETRICAL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WHICH LINED UP WELL WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS IN THE 061639Z ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS AND THE 061544Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75KTS IS HEDGED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65KTS (PGTW AND FMEE) AND T4.6/79KTS (ADT) TO REFLECT THE 6-HR IMPROVEMENT IN THE EIR SIGNATURE. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SST, ROBUST DUAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 19S IS SLOWLY COMING OUT OF A QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) STATE AS THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH STEERS IT SLOWLY EASTWARD. AFTER TAU 48, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST WILL BUILD, ASSUME STEERING AND GRADUALLY DRIVE THE CYCLONE SOUTHWARD. CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL FUEL STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 110KTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, A GRADUAL WEAKENING WILL COMMENCE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD AND VWS BECOMES MODERATE (15-25 KTS), AND BY TAU 120, WILL BE REDUCED TO 70KTS. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM THAT IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. HOWEVER, THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM MOTIONS IN THE POST-QS PHASE AND DURING THE STEERING TRANSITION, LEND AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z AND 072100Z.// NNNN