WTXS32 PGTW 060900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 060600Z --- NEAR 14.0S 79.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 79.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 14.5S 79.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 14.8S 79.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 14.7S 80.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 14.6S 81.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 14.8S 82.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 15.8S 84.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 16.8S 84.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 060900Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 79.8E. 06FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 597 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CURVED BANDING IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS, FMEE) AND T3.5 (55 KTS, PGTW AND FIMP) AND A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.8 (61 KTS). TC FARAJI IS TRACKING THROUGH A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A COMPLEX, ALBEIT WEAK, STEERING ENVIRONMENT THAT HAS LED TO A RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS SLOW SYSTEM MOTION, COUPLED WITH HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WILL LEAD TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM TO 90 KTS BY TAU 12. DURING THIS TIME THE STORM MOTION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY SLOW AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH- EAST. AFTER TAU 12, TC FARAJI WILL BEGIN TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AS THE INITIAL STEERING STR WEAKENS. CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72 AT WHICH TIME THE SYSTEM WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KTS. THEREAFTER, A BUILDING STR POSITIONED TO THE EAST WILL OVERTAKE STEERING AND BEGIN TO DRIVE TC FARAJI SOUTHEASTWARD. DURING THIS TIME, MODERATE (15-25 KTS) VWS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TO 90 KTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL FAIR AGREEMENT. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE CONVERGED ON A GENERALLY EASTWARD STORM MOTION AFTER TAU 24-36, HOWEVER THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE IN TRACK DIRECTION IS COMPLICATED BY THE OVERALL COMPLEX AND DYNAMIC STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE CONTRIBUTION FROM THE NAVGEM SOLUTION WHICH LIES 100NM SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK AT TAU 36. OVERALL, MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z AND 070900Z. // NNNN