WTXS32 PGTW 052100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 051800Z --- NEAR 13.2S 80.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 80.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 13.6S 80.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 14.1S 79.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 14.4S 80.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 14.4S 81.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 14.2S 82.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 14.9S 84.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 16.1S 85.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 052100Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 80.2E. 05FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 588 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRENGTHENING COMPACT SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 051605Z METOP-B AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS AN INTENSE CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING FROM THE WESTERN QUADRANT INTO THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. A 051452Z ASCAT-A IMAGE REVEALS A LLCC WITH 30-35 KNOT WINDS, HOWEVER THE LLCC IS ON THE EDGE OF THE PASS AND ONLY SHOWS THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE LEADING TO THE CONCLUSION THAT IT IS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON AVERAGING BETWEEN PGTW/FMEE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS), ADT OF 3.4 (53 KNOTS), AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 50 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES ARE FAVORABLE AT 29C. OVERALL, THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLEX, WEAK AND EVOLVING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS HAS ALREADY PROVEN TRUE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WHEN IT WAS ORIGINALLY FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY. THROUGH TAU 36, TC 19S WILL STEER SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS STR WILL WEAKEN AND TC 19S SHOULD SLOW, PERHAPS BECOME BRIEFLY QUASI-STATIONARY, THEN TRACK EAST- NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD AS A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) ASSUMES CONTROL OF THE STEERING. AFTER TAU 96, A WEAK STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST OF THE SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD STEER IT SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A WIDE SPREAD IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TURN TO THE EAST AND THEN TO THE SOUTH LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK AT THIS TIME. TC 19S HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AND IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY REACHING 100 KNOTS BY TAU 48 AND A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 72 WITH A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z AND 062100Z. // NNNN