WTXS32 PGTW 050900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050451ZFEB2021// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 050600Z --- NEAR 12.6S 81.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 81.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 12.9S 81.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 13.2S 80.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 13.8S 80.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 14.5S 80.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 14.0S 82.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 13.8S 84.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 14.3S 87.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 050900Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 81.2E. 05FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 616 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY-CONSOLIDATING, COMPACT SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 050330Z GMI 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE REVEALS AN INTENSE CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING FROM THE WESTERN QUADRANT INTO THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM WITH A SMALL CORE (APPROXIMATELY 60NM DIAMETER) SURROUNDING A DEVELOPING, RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. A 050334Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER WITH 35-40 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND NUMEROUS 30-35 KNOT WIND BARBS, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION AND INITIAL INTENSITY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, EXPANDING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH HAS GRADUALLY DECREASED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES ARE FAVORABLE AT 29C. OVERALL, THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLEX, WEAK AND EVOLVING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THROUGH TAU 48, TC 19S WILL STEER SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST. THIS STR WILL WEAKEN AND TC 19S SHOULD SLOW, PERHAPS BECOME BRIEFLY QUASI- STATIONARY, THEN TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD AS A NEAR- EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) ASSUMES CONTROL OF THE STEERING. AFTER TAU 96, THE STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD STEER IT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RAPID SPIN-UP BUT GENERALLY SUPPORTS THIS TRACK SCENARIO WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY. TC 19S IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY STARTING AT TAU 12 DURING THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM REACHING 95 KNOTS BY TAU 48 AND A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 72 WITH SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z AND 060900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) FINAL WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW). 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 050500).// NNNN