WTXS21 PGTW 050500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.7S 81.4E TO 14.2S 82.0E WITHIN 
THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF 
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA 
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 050430Z 
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 81.4E. THE 
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.6S 81.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 81.4E, APPROXIMATELY 
615NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY-CONSOLIDATING, COMPACT SYSTEM 
WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC). A 050334Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE IMAGE REVEALS A WELL-
DEFINED CENTER WITH 30-40 KNOT WINDS. A 050332Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE INDICATES CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO 
THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, EXPANDING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND 
MODERATE (20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS 
INDICATE A SLOW SOUTHWARD TRACK WITH RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE 
NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 
TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
060500Z.//
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