ABIO10 PGTW 050400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/050400Z-051800ZFEB2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050151ZFEB2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 05FEB21 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 25.1S 112.3E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF 
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE 
ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 
050300) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) IS LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 
81.4E, APPROXIMATELY 900 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 042223Z SSMIS 85 GHZ SATELLITE 
IMAGE DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 
FLARING CONVECTION ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 90S IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, 
(MODERATE 20-25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-30C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90S 
WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ISSUED FINAL WARNING FOR TC 18S.//
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