WTXS31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 019    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050000Z --- NEAR 25.1S 112.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.1S 112.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 25.8S 112.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 25.3S 112.2E.
05FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
195 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH 
GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE LIMITED REMAINING CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE LLCC 
CONTINUES TO WARM AS THE SYSTEM TAKES ON SUBTROPICAL FEATURES. 
ANALYSIS INDICATES UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT 
WITH HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) WIND SHEAR (VWS), LIMITED SPEED DIVERGENCE 
FROM THE WESTERLIES OFFSET TO THE SOUTH, AND MARGINAL SST VALUES (25-
26C). TC 18S WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD AS A STR BUILDS EAST OF THE 
SYSTEM OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. DUE TO THE SOUTHWARD TRACK, THE SYSTEM 
WILL MOVE UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES WITH INCREASING VWS (30-45 
KNOTS). TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO FULL TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL 
CYCLONE AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD UNDER OVER COOLING SEAS. NUMERICAL MODEL 
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE 
JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL 
CONSENSUS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT 
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED 
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z
IS 15 FEET.//
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