ABPW10 PGTW 022230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/REISSUED/022230Z-030600ZFEB2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021953ZFEB2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 02FEB21 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 17.1S 165.0E, APPROXIMATELY 306 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, 
NEW CALEDONIA, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED 
AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS33 PGTW 020300) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 012100Z THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 15P) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 23.5S 179.9W, AND IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.2S 174.0W, 
APPROXIMATELY 294 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TONGA. THE SYSTEM IS 
CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED 
AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION WITH AN AREA OF CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST. A 022135Z GMI 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS A WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN AREA OF DEEP 
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS IN A 
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY VERY HIGH (50-70 KT) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND COOL (25C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE 
SYSTEM IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUTE TROUGH. 
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRACK 
SOUTHEAST REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40 TO 45 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 989 MB. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE 
FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER 
TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
SYSTEM TO TRANSITION INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED REMNANTS OF TC 15P (ANA) AS 
SUBTROPICAL LOW.
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