WTPS33 PGTW 022100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 021800Z --- NEAR 20.6S 167.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 167.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 21.9S 167.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 22.8S 167.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 23.5S 166.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 022100Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 167.4E. 02FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 112 NM NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 6-HR ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE COMPACT CENTRAL CONVECTION CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND IS NOW SHEARED 20NM+ SOUTHWARD OF AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON LOW CLOUD TRACING IN THE EIR LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ON OUVEA AND LIFOU ISLANDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40KTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS, THE 021730Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 39KTS, AND PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45KTS, AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENED STATE OF THE CYCLONE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG (35KTS+) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) PARTLY OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 17P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 12. AFTERWARD, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD, PASSING JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NEW CALEDONIA AROUND TAU 24. TC LUCAS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE VWS FURTHER INCREASES AND SST VALUES COOL TO 25C, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LEADING TO AN OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.// NNNN