WTPS33 PGTW 021500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 021200Z --- NEAR 19.6S 166.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 166.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 21.3S 167.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 22.4S 167.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 23.1S 166.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 23.8S 165.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 021500Z POSITION NEAR 20.0S 167.0E. 02FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (LUCAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM SOUTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE VIA EXTRAPOLATION THROUGH THE CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE DATA FROM A PARTIAL 021023Z ASCAT-B PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS PLACED BETWEEN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS, PGTW) AND T3.0 (45 KTS, KNES) AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH A 021020Z CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KTS. TC LUCAS IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) AND THROUGH A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY HIGH (30+ KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND CONVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. IN THE NEAR TERM, TC LUCAS WILL MAINTAIN A 50 KTS INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12 AND THEN BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND DUE TO CONTINUED HIGH VWS. A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL TAKEOVER STEERING FROM THE NER AFTER TAU 12 AND BEGIN TO DRIVE THE SYSTEM ON A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 24. CONTINUED HIGH VWS AND COOLING SST THEREAFTER WILL LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING AND ULTIMATELY LEAD TO DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A MAXIMUM SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS OF 170 NM AT TAU 36 THAT INCREASES SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SPREAD IN NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED ON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.// NNNN