WTPS33 PGTW 020900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z --- NEAR 18.4S 166.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 166.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 20.2S 167.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 21.6S 167.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 22.4S 167.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 23.1S 166.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 25.0S 164.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 020900Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 166.4E. 02FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (LUCAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 132 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP, CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT HAS BEGUN TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE FEATURES IN A TIMELY 020555Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE THAT FURTHER REVEALS THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS SHEARED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CURRENT POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED BELOW MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS, PGTW) AND T3.5 (55 KTS, NFFN, KNES) AND CLOSER TO A 020218Z CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 46 KTS BASED ON THE RECENT WARMING CLOUD TOP TREND. TC LUCAS IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) AND THROUGH A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY HIGH (30+ KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND CONVERGENT UPPERLEVEL FLOW ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. IN THE NEAR TERM, TC LUCAS WILL MAINTAIN A 45 KTS INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12 AND THEN BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND DUE TO CONTINUED HIGH VWS. A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL TAKE OVER STEERING FROM THE NER AFTER TAU 24 AND BEGIN TO DRIVE THE SYSTEM ON A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 36. CONTINUED HIGH VWS AND COOLING SST THEREAFTER WILL LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING AND ULTIMATELY LEAD TO DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A MAXIMUM SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS OF 250 NM AT TAU 48 THAT INCREASES SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RELATIVELY LARGE SPREAD IN NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED ON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z. // NNNN