WTPS33 PGTW 020300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 020000Z --- NEAR 17.1S 165.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 165.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 19.0S 166.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 20.7S 167.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 21.7S 167.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 22.6S 167.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 24.3S 165.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 020300Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 165.4E. 02FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 306 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 6-HR ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE COMPACT CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND SHEARED 90NM+ SOUTHEASTWARD OF A MOSTLY- EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLC IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45KTS IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM 012038Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS NEAR THE CENTER AND SUPPORTED BY A 020040Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 47KTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG (35KTS+) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) PARTLY OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 17P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR- EQUATORIAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 24. AFTERWARD. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTHWESTWARD, PASSING JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NEW CALEDONIA AROUND TAU 48. TC LUCAS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE VWS FURTHER INCREASES AND SST VALUES COOL TO 25C, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72, POSSIBLY SOONER. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LEADING TO AN OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN