WTPS33 PGTW 012100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 011800Z --- NEAR 16.6S 164.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 164.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 18.5S 166.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 20.3S 167.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 21.7S 167.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 22.7S 167.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 24.3S 165.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 25.9S 162.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 012100Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 164.5E. 01FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (LUCAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 011743Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS LOW LEVEL BANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC WITH A PATCH OF STRONG CONVECTION DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS, BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) AND AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 62 KNOTS AT 011436Z FURTHER REINFORCES THE INITIAL INTENSITY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG (30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 17P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 24 BUT SHOULD TRANSITION TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BY TAU 36, WHICH SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS SET ALONG CONSENSUS WITH CROSS-TRACK SPREAD LIMITED TO UNDER 100NM AT TAU 72. TC 17P IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN STEADILY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS VWS STEADILY INCREASES TO 40-55 KNOTS AND SST VALUES COOL TO 25C. THE SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE AT OR BEFORE TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG HIGH ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN