WTPS31 PGTW 011500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z --- NEAR 22.7S 180.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S 180.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 24.2S 178.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 26.2S 176.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 28.6S 174.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 011500Z POSITION NEAR 23.1S 179.6W. 01FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (ANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 011206Z ATMS 88.2GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0/3.5 (45/55 KNOTS) AND A KNES ESTIMATE OF T3.0/3.0 (45 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (30-35 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 12 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL TROUGH. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH WITH INCREASING VWS (35-40 KNOTS) AND COOLER SST VALUES (25- 24C). TC 15P SHOULD COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36 AS A GALE-FORCE LOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN