WTPS33 PGTW 010900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 006 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z --- NEAR 14.8S 160.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 19 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 160.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 16.2S 163.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 18.1S 165.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 20.1S 166.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 22.0S 166.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 23.8S 165.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 25.3S 163.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 010900Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 161.5E. 01FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (LUCAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 528 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. A 010516Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS). OTHER AGENCY ESTIMATES VARY FROM T4.0 (ABRF) TO T4.5 (KNES) BASED ON THE EMBEDDED CENTER TECHNIQUE. THEREFORE, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND THE PEAK INTENSITY FORECAST. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE (20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 17P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 36 BUT SHOULD TRANSITION TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BY TAU 48, WHICH SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SEVERAL OUTLIERS. NAVGEM TRACKS THE SYSTEM UNREALISTICALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 72 WHILE THE UKMET TRACKER AND UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACKERS INDICATE A TRACK FURTHER EAST NEAR VANUATU. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FAVORS A TIGHT GROUPING OF THE ECMWF, ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. TC 17P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 12 BUT SHOULD WEAKEN STEADILY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS VWS STEADILY INCREASES TO 40-50 KNOTS AND SST VALUES COOL TO 25C. THE SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG HIGH ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (BINA) FINAL WARNING (WTPS32 PGTW).// NNNN