WTPS31 PGTW 010300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 009 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z --- NEAR 21.2S 179.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 179.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 22.6S 180.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 24.2S 178.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 26.2S 176.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 16 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 28.5S 173.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 010300Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 179.3E. 01FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT THE WESTERLY VWS IS STARTING TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON TC 15P, WITH THE WESTERN OUTER FEEDER BANDS STARTING TO EMERGE FROM UNDER THE CIRRUS CANOPY ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THERE HAS BEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES, SO THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON A SPIRAL BAND ANALYSIS OF THE LOW LEVEL BANDS EVIDENT IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES BETWEEN T3.5-T4.0 (55 TO 65 KTS) AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.6. THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO SLOWLY ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES ALONG THE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS CONFIRMED BY THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED DEPICTION IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY, WESTERLY VWS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IS IMPACTING THE SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH TAU 48. ADDITIONALLY AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH, IT WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS, EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO WATERS LESS THAN 26C BY TAU 36, AND THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE INCREASED SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS WILL RESULT IN RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (BINA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN