WTPS33 PGTW 010300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 005 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z --- NEAR 14.1S 158.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 158.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 15.4S 161.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 17.3S 164.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 19.3S 166.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 21.1S 166.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 23.2S 166.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 25.0S 164.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 010300Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 159.3E. 01FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 605 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI- SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES AND SPIRAL BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE FEATURES IN THE EIR LOOP AND A 312315Z GMI MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS HEDGED JUST ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK FINAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS), A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 49 KNOTS AND JUST BELOW AN EARLIER 312041Z CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KTS. ADDITIONALLY, A 312306Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS GIVES FURTHER CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION AND SHOWS A SWATH OF 40KT BARBS SURROUNDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC LUCAS IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE CURRENT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE TEMPERED BY DIMINISHING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MODERATE SHEAR, BUT TC LUCAS IS STILL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY IN THE NEAR TERM, RESULTING IN 60 KTS BY TAU 24. THEREAFTER, INCREASING VWS (25-30 KNOTS AFTER TAU 24) WILL LEAD TO A WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ALONG A GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK ALONG A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 36, TC LUCAS WILL BEGIN A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TRACK AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR AXIS. HIGH (>30 KTS) VWS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DURING THIS TIME. BY TAU 96 THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER DUE TO HIGH (>40 KTS) VWS AND COOLING SST (25-26 DEGREES CELSIUS) WHICH WILL LEAD TO FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MODEL TRACKS DIVERGE TO A MAXIMUM 325 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 96. THIS HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL PORTION AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS PLACED ALONG THE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING OVER TC LUCAS, GIVING POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF ITS DISSIPATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (BINA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN