WTPS32 PGTW 312100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (BINA) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (BINA) WARNING NR 005 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 311800Z --- NEAR 14.3S 176.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 176.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 16.7S 178.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 19.9S 179.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 23.3S 177.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 312100Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 176.7E. 31JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (BINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 264 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY DISORGANIZED SYSTEM, WITH ELONGATED, FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 311614Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE PROVED SOMEWHAT HELPFUL IN CONFINING THE POSITION BUT LENT ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE, SET ON THE LOWER END OF AN AVERAGE OF MULTI- AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5-T4.0 (PGTW, KNES RESPECTIVELY), AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T2.9 AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 42 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS MARGINAL, WITH MODERATE (20-25 KTS) WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VWS, RELATIVELY WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30C) SSTS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL QUICLY DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS HOWEVER, AS VWS RAPIDLY INCREASES TO ABOVE 30 KTS AND THE OUTFLOW FROM TC 15P BEGINS TO DISRUPT THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SURROUNDING TC 16P. TC 16P IS CURRENTLY APPROXIMATELY 400NM TO NORTH-NORTHWEST OF TC 15P AND APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN CAPTURED IN THE BROAD SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD, SIGNALING THE START OF BINARY INTERACTION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STR TO THE EAST AND THE EASTERN SIDE OF TC 15P. IT IS LIKELY THAT DUE TO INCREASING VWS AFTER TAU 24 THAT TC 16P WILL BECOME FULLY EXPOSED, AND THEN CEASE TO BE A DISTINCT TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MERGES WITH TC 15P BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO BUT SHOWS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN TERMS OF THE SPEED OF ADVANCE AND THE EXACT NATURE OF THE BINARY INTERACTION WITH TC 15P. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. IN LIGHT OF THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN NATURE OF THE BINARY INTERACTION, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN