ABIO10 PGTW 311530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/311530ZJAN2021-311800ZFEB2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311354ZJAN2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 31JAN21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 21.4S 121.1E, APPROXIMATELY 394 NM EAST OF LEARMONTH, 
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 311500) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (RMNTS TC 13S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 15.5S 69.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 61.5E, APPROXIMATELY 387 
NM NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 310518Z METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD 
AND DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES REMNANTS OF 13S IS IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), FAIR 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT REMNANTS OF 13S WILL TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 17.5S 77.3E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. 
SEE PARA 2.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO 
WARNING STATUS.//
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