WTPS33 PGTW 311500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 003 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 311200Z --- NEAR 13.1S 155.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 155.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 13.5S 158.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 14.6S 161.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 16.1S 164.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 17.8S 166.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 20.8S 167.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 22.8S 167.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 24.6S 166.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 311500Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 156.0E. 31JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (LUCAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 806 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST- NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES AND SPIRAL BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE FEATURES IN THE EIR LOOP AND VIA EXTRAPOLATION THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION EVIDENT IN THE WINDFIELD FROM 310951Z ASCAT-A DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KTS), A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 AND A 311103Z CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 56 KTS. TC LUCAS IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THESE HIGHLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM AND RESULT IN AN INTENSITY OF 80 KTS BY TAU 24. THEREAFTER, INCREASING VWS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS A GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 48, TC LUCAS WILL BEGIN A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TRACK AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR AXIS. HIGH (25-30 KTS) VWS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DURING THIS TIME. BY TAU 96 THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER DUE TO HIGH VWS AND COOLING SST WHICH WILL LEAD TO FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MODEL TRACKS DIVERGE TO A MAXIMUM 335 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 96. THE GFS, ECMWF AND NAVGEM MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDE TRACKS THAT BRING THE VORTEX OVER NEW CALEDONIA WHILE THE UKMET AND GALWEM GUIDANCE LIES TO THE EAST, RESULTING IN A TRACK THAT DOES NOT BRING THE SYSTEM CENTER OVER LAND. THIS HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL PORTION AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS PLACED ALONG THE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // NNNN