WTPS33 PGTW 310900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 002 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 310600Z --- NEAR 13.9S 153.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 153.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 14.0S 156.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 14.8S 159.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 16.2S 162.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 18.0S 165.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 21.3S 167.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 23.3S 167.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 25.1S 165.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 310900Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 153.9E. 31JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (LUCAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 901 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BANDING FEATURES IN THE MSI LOOP AS WELL AS THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE PRESENT IN A 310622Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS HEDGED HIGHER THAN A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS) BASED ON AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.3 (51 KTS) AND A 310348Z SATELLITE CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 48 KTS FROM CIMSS. TC LUCAS IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THESE HIGHLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM AND RESULT IN AN INTENSITY OF 70 KTS BY TAU 12. THEREAFTER, INCREASING VWS WILL STIFLE THIS RAPID INTENSIFICATION TREND AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS A GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK ALONG A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT IS BUILDING TO THE EAST. CONTINUED WARM SST AND ROBUST OUTFLOW, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY MODERATE (20-25 KTS) VWS, WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 85 KTS BY TAU 36. THEREAFTER, HIGH (30+ KTS) VWS, COUPLED WITH DECREASING SST AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE STEERING STR BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96, IT WILL FURTHER WEAKEN TO 45 KTS BY TAU 96 AT WHICH TIME IT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER. BY TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO 30 KTS AND DISSIPATE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MODEL TRACKS PROVIDE A MAXIMUM 500 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 96. THE GFS, ECMWF AND NAVGEM MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDE TRACKS THAT BRING THE VORTEX OVER NEW CALEDONIA WHILE THE UKMET AND GALWEM GUIDANCE LIES TO THE EAST, RESULTING IN A TRACK THAT DOES NOT BRING THE SYSTEM CENTER OVER LAND. THIS HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL PORTION AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS PLACED ALONG THE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z, 312100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN