ABIO10 PGTW 291800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/291800Z-301800ZJAN2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 16.1S 125.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 125.2E, APPROXIMATELY 
170 NM EAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY 
(EIR) AND A 291315Z GMI 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS DISORGANIZED 
LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) THAT IS OVER LAND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS) AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SURROUNDING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(SST) ARE VERY WARM (30-31C), PROVIDING A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT IN THE EVENT THAT INVEST 98S TRACKS OVER WATER. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S WILL TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE COAST AS IT STRENGTHENS, CONSOLIDATES, AND 
LATER ON MOVE INTO THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE 
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT 
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS 
UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF 13S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
17.5S 77.3E, APPROXIMATELY 798 NM EAST OF PORT MANTHURIN, MAURITIUS. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 291332Z AMSU-B 89GHZ 
SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES REMNANTS OF 13S IS IN A 
MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MARGINAL (15-
20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD WESTWARD AND POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT REMNANTS OF 13S WILL TRACK 
WESTERLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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