ABPW10 PGTW 302130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/302130Z-310600ZJAN2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301951ZJAN2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301952ZJAN2021//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300330ZJAN2021//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF C IS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 30JAN21 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 17.5S 178.2E, APPROXIMATELY 38 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, 
FIJI, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 302100) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) AT 30JAN21 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 171.4E, APPROXIMATELY 392 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF 
PORT VILA, VANUATU, AND HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPS32 PGTW 302100) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 14.4S 143.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 148.2E, APPROXIMATELY 
260 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 292253Z METOP-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
DEPICT CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER. A PARTIAL 292254Z ASCAT-B PASS INDICATES A 
DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25-30KT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW 
(10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94P 
WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. SEE REF C (WTPS21 PGTW 300330) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.A.(2) TO 
WARNING STATUS.
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