WTPS32 PGTW 302100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301651JAN2021// REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301951JAN2021// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 301800Z --- NEAR 11.9S 171.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 21 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 171.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 12.4S 174.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 14.3S 177.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 16.9S 180.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 17 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 19.8S 178.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 25.5S 175.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 302100Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 172.2E. 30JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 392 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TWO AREAS OF COMPACT DEEP CONVECTION, ONE NEAR THE ASSESSED CENTER AND THE OTHER DISPLACED TO THE NORTH, WITH LOW-LEVEL BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN CONVECTIVE AREA. A FORTUITOUS 301406Z AMSR2 COLOR ENHANCED 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATED A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A CYAN RING AND STRONG CONVECTION BANDS TO THE SOUTH AND NORTH. HOWEVER DUE TO THE EXTENDED TIME SINCE THE AMSR2 PASS AND THE LACK OF A CLEAR CENTER IN THE EIR, THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS, HIGHER THAN THE PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KTS) AND IN AGREEMENT WITH A KNES ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS) AND THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE COMPACT SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM LIES IN A MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE REGION CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (30-31C) SSTS, LOW (5-10 KT) VWS AND ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 16P IS TRACKING QUICKLY TOWARDS THE EAST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED TO THE NORTH. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM SHIFTS TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH AND BECOME CAPTURED BY TC 15P SOUTH OF FIJI, ULTIMATELY BECOMING ABSORBED BY TC 15P BY TAU 72. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, ALLOWING FOR A SHORT BURST OF INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 45 KTS BY TAU 24. THEREAFTER THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT EMANATING FROM THE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH TC 15P. AS THE SYSTEM CLOSES AND MERGES WITH TC 15P, THE COMBINATION OF THE CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT, COOLER SSTS AND DISRUPTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION AS A DISTINCT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO AT LEAST THROUGH TAU 36 WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH TC 15P. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE MULT- MODEL CONSENSUS IN LIGHT OF RECENT MOTION THOUGH TAU 36, THEN VERY NEAR THE CONSENSUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER DUE TO THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN NATURE OF THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH TC 15P, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS22 PGTW 301700).// NNNN