ABPW10 PGTW 301830 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS 301830Z-311830ZJAN2021// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301351ZJAN2021// REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300321ZJAN2021// REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301651ZJAN2021// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REFS B AND C ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 30JAN21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 177.4E, APPROXIMATELY 97 NM NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 301500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 143.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 148.2E, APPROXIMATELY 260NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 292253Z METOP-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A PARTIAL 292254Z ASCAT-B PASS INDICATES A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25-30KT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94P WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPS21 PGTW 300330) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 168.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 169.3E, APPROXIMATELY 586NM NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 301406Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A PARTIAL 301037Z ASCAT-C PASS INDICATES A TIGHT LLCC WITH 25-30KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 99P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF C (WTPS22 PGTW 301700) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3.JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(2) TO HIGH. NNNN