WTPS22 PGTW 301700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.9S 168.8E TO 15.1S 175.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 301200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.9S 169.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 13.0S 168.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 169.3E, APPROXIMATELY 
586NM NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 301406Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT CONVECTIVE 
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). A PARTIAL 301037Z ASCAT-C PASS INDICATES A TIGHT LLCC WITH 
25-30KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
SHOWS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD 
RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM 
(30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL 
AGREEMENT THAT 99P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WITH STEADY 
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
311700Z.
//
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