ABIO10 PGTW 301530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/301530Z-301800ZJAN2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301451ZJAN2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST REMNANTS 13S) PREVIOUSLY 
LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 77.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5S 69.5E, 
APPROXIMATELY 516 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 301141Z SSMIS 91GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES REMNANTS OF 13S 
IS IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW 
(<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (27-
28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT REMNANTS OF 13S WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 17.5S 77.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.5S 124.2E, APPROXIMATELY 114 
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 300838Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT 
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S WILL 
TRACK GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS AND 
DEVELOP QUICKLY ONCE OVER WATER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 995 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 301500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO 
HIGH.//
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