ABPW10 PGTW 300600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/300600Z-310600ZJAN2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300151ZJAN2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300321ZJAN2021//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
/CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 30JAN21 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 16.1S 176.5E, APPROXIMATELY 162 NM NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, AND 
HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING 
TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 300300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 13.2S 148.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 148.2E, APPROXIMATELY 
260 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 300317Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT 
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER. A PARTIAL 292254Z ASCAT-B PASS INDICATES A 
DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST 
PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94P WILL TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPS21 PGTW 300330) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 12.9S 163.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 165.9E, APPROXIMATELY 
336 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 292325Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT 
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 99P WILL TRACK EASTWARD 
WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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