ABPW10 PGTW 300400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN 
AND/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/300400Z-
300600ZJAN2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300151ZJAN2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300321ZJAN2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AND REF B 
IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 30JAN21 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 176.5E, APPROXIMATELY 162 NM NORTHWEST OF SUVA, 
FIJI, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 300300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 
14.4S 143.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 148.2E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM 
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 292253Z METOP-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT 
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER. A PARTIAL 292254Z ASCAT-B PASS INDICATES A 
DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST 
PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, 
LOW (10-15KTS)VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94P 
WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 13.5S 163.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 165.9E, APPROXIMATELY 
336 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 292252Z METOP-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM 
(28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL 
AGREEMENT THAT 99P WILL INTENSIFY AND TRACK EASTWARD. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 15.8S 172.3E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. 
SEE PARA 2.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.A.(1) TO 
WARNING STATUS. UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
NNNN