WTPS31 PGTW 300300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/ 291451ZJAN2021// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 300000Z --- NEAR 16.1S 176.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 176.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 16.7S 177.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 17.8S 178.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 19.5S 178.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 20.6S 178.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 23.8S 179.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 27.3S 176.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 29.9S 174.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 300300Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 176.8E. 30JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 162 NM NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BANDING FEATURES IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS) AND THE PRESENCE OF 35KTS WINDS IN DATA FROM A 292206Z ASCAT-C PASS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 14P IS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE AND IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THE NEAR TERM, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DUE TO CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER VITI LEVU, FIJI JUST PRIOR TO TAU 24 WITH AN INTENSITY OF 55 KTS. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DUE TO MODERATE (15-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48 THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK ALONG THE STEERING STR. HIGH (30+ KTS) VWS AFTER TAU 72 WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING AND LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODEL TRACKS PREDICTING LANDFALL OVER VITI LEVU AND LENDS OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z. 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 291500).// NNNN