ABPW10 PGTW 291530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND/SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/291530Z-300600ZJAN2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/291451ZJAN2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 14.4S 143.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 146.3E, APPROXIMATELY 
214 NM NORTH OF CAIRNS. AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT INVEST 94P HAS MOVED OVER WATER AND 
DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING 
WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND FLARING CONVECTION OVER 
THE CENTER. A 291105Z OSCAT IMAGE REVEALS 25 KT WINDS OVER THE 
EASTERN QUADRANT AND WEAKER (10-15 KTS) WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE 
LLC. INVEST 94P IS TRACKING THROUGH AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
CHARACTERIZED BY GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94P WILL TRACK GENERALLY 
EASTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES AND INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 15.7S 171.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 174.3E, APPROXIMATELY 
244 NM NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 291010Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT CURVED DEEP 
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96P WILL 
TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT INTENSIFIES.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 995 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 291500) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
13.5S 163.5E, APPROXIMATELY 371 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 291006Z MHS 89 
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), GOOD 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 99P WILL INTENSIFY AND 
TRACK EASTWARD.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REISSUED TCFA FOR 96P. ADDED  AREA IN 
PARA 2.B.(3)//
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