ABPW10 PGTW 290600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/290600Z-300600ZJAN2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.7S 142.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 143.6E, APPROXIMATELY 199 NM 
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND RADAR DEPICT LOW-LEVEL CLOUD TURNING WITH CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. 
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS). WHILE THE 
INVEST REMAINS OVER LAND, GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO 
MOVE EASTWARD AND SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL 
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.7S 171.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 172.3E, APPROXIMATELY 258 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND A 290421Z SSMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE 
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 282133Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS HIGHER (30 KTS) 
WINDS OFFSET TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WITH WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND 
MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96P WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT 
CONSOLIDATES.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 995 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 281500) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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