ABIO10 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/290300Z-291800ZJAN2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     1. AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.1S 
125.7E, APPROXIMATELY 373 NM SOUTHWEST FROM DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS LOW LEVEL BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS OVER 
LAND. A 290056Z METOP-B 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS AN OVERALL 
LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS) AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SURROUNDING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(SST) ARE VERY WARM (30-31C), PROVIDING A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT IN THE EVENT THAT INVEST 98P TRACKS OVER WATER. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98P WILL TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE COAST AS IT STRENGTHENS, CONSOLIDATES, AND 
LATER ON MOVE INTO THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS LOW.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) AS LOW.//
NNNN