ABPW10 PGTW 281530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/281530Z-290600ZJAN2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281451ZJAN2021
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.      
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 14.7S 142.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7S 142.9E, APPROXIMATELY 
129 NM NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 272335Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A 
WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER LAND WITH FLARING 
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT AND 
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10KTS). HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER
LAND, WHICH IS HINDERING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS 
INDICATE INVEST 94P WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CAPE 
YORK PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR LONGER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 16.3S 170.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 171.1E, APPROXIMATELY 
202 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 281025Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT 
CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96P WILL TRACK 
GENERALLY EASTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 281500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO 
HIGH.//
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