WTPS21 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.6S 170.3E TO 15.6S 174.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 281200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.7S 171.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
281025Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE 
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, WARM (29-30C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96P WILL 
TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD AS IT INTENSIFIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
291500Z.
//
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