ABPW10 PGTW 280600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/280600Z-290600ZJAN2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 16.3S 170.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7S 142.5E, APPROXIMATELY 
127 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 272335Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A 
WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER LAND WITH FLARING 
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT AND 
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10KTS). HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER 
LAND, WHICH IS HINDERING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS 
INDICATE INVEST 94P WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CAPE 
YORK PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR LONGER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 16.3S 170.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 169.5E, APPROXIMATELY 
150 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 280437Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT 
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96P WILL 
TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD AND CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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