ABPW10 PGTW 270600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/270600Z-280600ZJAN2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 15.6S 140.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 142.3E, APPROXIMATELY 
187 NM SOUTH OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 270200Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A 
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER LAND WITH DISORGANIZED 
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (<15KTS). HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND, WHICH IS 
HINDERING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INVEST 
94P WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA FOR 
THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR LONGER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED 
TO LOW.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
16.3S 170.5E, APPROXIMATELY 152 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 270244Z AMSR2 
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO 
MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD AND 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96P 
WILL TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD AND CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT TWO TO 
THREE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 995 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN