WTXS31 PGTW 261500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 261200Z --- NEAR 19.2S 93.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 93.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 19.4S 92.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 19.4S 89.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 19.1S 87.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 18.6S 83.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 17.3S 76.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 17 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 16.1S 69.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 14.9S 63.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 261500Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 93.4E. 26JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 2065 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 261221Z SSMIS 91GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER WITH LIMITED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE THE PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 2.0(30 KNOTS) BASED ON A 261200Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 2.5(35 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY- FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MARGINAL SST VALUES (26C) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE UNDER MARGINAL CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 72, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS SST VALUES (28-29C) WARM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z AND 271500Z.// NNNN