WTXS31 PGTW 250300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 250000Z --- NEAR 16.5S 95.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 95.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 17.2S 95.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 17.8S 94.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 18.1S 94.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 18.2S 92.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 17.6S 89.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 16.7S 84.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 15.4S 79.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 250300Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 95.6E. 25JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 277 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM THAT CONTINUES TO FLARE UP AND DOWN. HOWEVER, THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS NOW OBSCURED MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) - AN INDICATION OF LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING LOW CLOUD TRACING IN THE EIR LOOP AND ON TOP OF A FAINT BUT DISCERNIBLE LLC FEATURE IN THE 250001Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK AGENCY/OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25KTS TO 38KTS TO REFLECT THE IMPROVED 6-HR EIR SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE RELATIVE VWS HAS RELAXED TO 15KTS AS THE STORM MOTION HAS BECOME IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. WESTWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS LIMITED BUT IS PROVIDING AMPLE VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SST IS MODERATELY CONDUCIVE AT 27C. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST EXTENSION OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THIS PERIPHERY THROUGH TAU 36 WHEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD IN AND BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO 45KTS BY TAU 24; AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS DURING THE WESTWARD TRACK WILL TEMPER THE INTENSITY TO 40KTS. HOWEVER, TOWARD THE END OF FORECAST, AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS MORE EQUATORWARD AND INTO WARMER SST (28C), A SECONDARY INTENSIFICATION PHASE WILL BEGIN AND BY TAU 120, TC 13S WILL REACH 50KTS. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH NVGM A TAD TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z AND 260300Z.// NNNN