WTXS31 PGTW 240300 COR MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 007A CORRECTED// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 007A CORRECTED 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 97.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 97.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 16.8S 97.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 17.5S 96.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 18.0S 96.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 18.4S 96.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 18.7S 94.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 18.2S 90.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 16.8S 86.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 240300Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 97.5E. 24JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 234 SOUTH OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE AS IT FLARED UP AND DOWN WHILE BEING SHEARED WESTWARD, PARTLY OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DEFINED LLC FEATURE IN THE 240012Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35KTS IS HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30KTS TO REFLECT THE 6-HR INCREASED AND DEEPENED CONVECTION. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (25KT+) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY LIMITED WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND LUKE WARM (27C) ALONG-TRACK SST. THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENSION OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST UP TO TAU 48. AFTERWARD A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 36HRS, TEMPERING THE INTENSITY. AFTERWARD, THE VWS WILL RELAX AS THE STORM MOTION BECOMES IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW, LEADING TO A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 45KTS AT TAU 48. AFTERWARD, COOLING SSTS AND DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL ONCE AGAIN CREATE A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT LEADING TO A SECONDARY WEAKENING. BY TAU 120, TC 13S WILL BE REDUCED TO 35KTS AS IT TURNS MORE EQUATORWARD INTO INCREASING VWS. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z AND 250300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) FINAL WARNING (WTXS32 PGTW). 2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED TYPOGRAPHICAL ERROR AND ADDED TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S REFERENCE IN REMARKS.// NNNN